MUST WATCH: The Changing Global Order and The Geopolitics of Natural Gas, Energy & Fertilizer | Peter Zeihan…
Natural gas is quickly establishing itself as the next major prize for consuming countries such as the United States and China. The pipes that will one day deliver this environmentally safer resource will carve alliances and hostilities between economic powerhouses and volatile states in the twenty-first century.
Ammonia, nitrogen, nitrates, phosphates, potash, and sulphates – the raw elements that make up the fertilizer market — have increased by 30% since the beginning of the year. Russia and Ukraine are two of the world’s most major agricultural commodity producers, with exportable supply in the global food and fertilizer markets concentrated in a few countries.
According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Russia was the world’s leading exporter of nitrogen fertilizers and the second-largest supplier of both potassic and phosphorous fertilizers in 2021. The invasion of Ukraine has not halted trade between Russia and the rest of the globe, but it has seriously affected it as importers and vessel charterers steer clear of the country in light of the invasion of Ukraine.
These war-related food and fertilizer shortages are projected to impact Africa, the Middle East, poor Asian countries, and sections of Latin America the worst. Oil and natural gas prices will continue to rise as a variety of political and economic liability concerns force Russian supply off the market. It will take years to restart Russian oil production if it is shut down, which is becoming increasingly plausible as Putin’s battle continues on.
Russia can’t keep up with current energy output without the help of international oil giants like BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil. Russia’s ability to continue output will swiftly dwindle now that those corporations have left. The Russian people are bracing for adversity and scurrying to stock up on supplies. Average Russians will soon be forced to consume mostly wheat and potatoes, both of which are abundant in Russia. However, individuals in Russia are likely to starve due to deteriorated distribution networks.
The starvation of Russian citizens and the war deaths in Ukraine will only contribute to the demographic crisis. China is certain to take over a huge part of Siberia, sooner or later. How quickly this happens depends upon how quickly Putin is removed from power and Russia is thrown into years of turmoil and disarray. Putin’s own actions are accelerating the global instability that will lead to his own downfall.
Peter Zeihan estimates that in the next forty years, China’s population is expected to drop by half. The country’s population peaked in 2007, and it will likely see a failed state before then—in less than ten years. Russia is likely facing a future similar to China’s.
Peter Zeihan argues that what we’re seeing is just wars of collapse.
Watch the full presentation:
Time Stamps ⛳️
00:00:00 GENERAL MARK MILLEY intro
00:02:50 Life at the End of the World
00:12:24 China’s Demographics & Periphery
00:21:33 Energy Investments Oil & Gas
00:25:50 Russian & Ukraine Situation
00:33:12 Wheat Food Exports
00:35:00 Global Trade Dependency
00:36:49 Mexico Demographics
00:45:45 American politics
00:54:25 Questions & Answers
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